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International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health's content profile, based on 11 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Linking mpox wastewater surveillance with reported clinical cases in three countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sgarabotto, E.; Tiwari, A.; Kabena, M.; Lyimo, E.; Lompo, P.; Shea, D.; Ngelesi, E.; Mushumbusi, J. P.; Zakaria, G.; Msoma, E.; Kabore, B.; Mnyawonga, S. C.; Yougbare, S.; Chuwa, M.; Tran, T. T.; Salmivirta, E.; Miller, T.; Rytkonen, A.; Lood, R.; Krolicka, A.; Tahita, M. C.; Baraka, V.; Maketa, V.; Pitkanen, T.

2026-06-23 occupational and environmental health 10.64898/2026.06.18.26355929 medRxiv
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The emergence of the novel monkeypox virus (MPXV) clade Ib in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and neighboring countries in late 2023 highlighted the need for rapid, scalable surveillance approaches to support outbreak detection and response. As part of the ODIN-Mpox project, wastewater surveillance (WWS) systems were established as an emergency public health measure in three Sub-Saharan African countries (DRC, Tanzania, and Burkina Faso) to evaluate the feasibility of wastewater-based monitoring for mpox and strengthen local surveillance capacity. Between January 2025 and April 2026, 117 wastewater samples were collected from selected sites and analyzed for MPXV DNA using targeted qPCR assays. Clinical mpox data were obtained from national surveillance systems and WHO reports to assess epidemiological linkages between wastewater detections and reported infections. Six wastewater samples tested positive for MPXV DNA. During the study period, DRC experienced the highest disease burden, with weekly reported cases peaking at about 3,000 in January 2025, while Tanzania reported a peak of 20 weekly cases in March 2025. No confirmed clinical cases were reported in Burkina Faso. No clear relationship was observed between reported case numbers and qPCR Ct values in positive wastewater samples. Despite the low detection frequency, the project demonstrated the operational feasibility of implementing MPXV wastewater surveillance in resource-limited settings and established laboratory capacity for environmental monitoring of emerging infectious diseases. Given the early stage of WWS implementation in the region, the study identified opportunities for further system strengthening, including optimization of sample processing and reporting workflows, improved access to laboratory supplies, and enhanced integration of environmental and clinical surveillance data streams. These findings highlight the value of WWS as a complementary component of integrated public health surveillance systems and emphasize the need for continued investment in laboratory capacity, harmonized methodologies, governance frameworks, and knowledge exchange to enhance outbreak preparedness and response in low-resource settings.

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Enteric pathogen burden and co-infection patterns across age and a rural-urban gradient: findings from the ECoMiD birth cohort, Northern Ecuador

Zhou, N. A.; Hemlock, C.; Jesser, K. J.; Fagnant-Sperati, C. S.; Contreras, J. D.; Arnold, B. F.; Cevallos, W.; Trueba, G.; Lee, G. O.; Eisenberg, J. N. S.; Levy, K.

2026-07-13 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.07.08.26357325 medRxiv
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Enteric pathogen infections are a major global health challenge, influenced by a variety of host and environmental factors, and their clinical presentation and treatment can be complicated by the presence of co-infections. The prevalence of enteric infections and co-infections tend to vary between rural and urban contexts, likely driven by underlying environmental, geographic, and demographic characteristics. To improve understanding of urbanicity and age on enteric pathogen prevalence and on co-infection risk, we measured 22 enteric pathogens in fecal samples collected from children aged 6, 12, and 18 months across a rural-urban gradient within the ECoMiD birth cohort study (n=473). Enteric pathogen burden was high and increased with age, with at least one pathogen detected in 91% of children at 6 months, 97% at 12 months, and 98% at 18 months. However, prevalence of some pathogens-- notably Salmonella enterica, enterovirus, and rotavirus-- decreased with age. Co-infections were also common (88%), and children were infected with as many as 11 pathogens simultaneously. The most frequently observed co-infection profiles included enteroaggregative E. coli and atypical enteropathogenic E. coli, followed by combinations with diffusely adherent E. coli, enterovirus, enterotoxigenic E. coli, and/or adenovirus. Enteric pathogen detection generally was higher in more rural settings, though patterns varied by pathogen. These results provide useful information for future examination of pathogen dynamics of co-occurrence. Given the ubiquity of enteric infections in high transmission settings, strategies that aim to reduce overall microbial exposure may be needed to supplement interventions targeting control of individual pathogens.

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Accounting for Human Movement to Improve Exposure-Health Models

Tahir, H.; Smart, S.; Cai, S.; Ng, A.; Vande Hey, J.; Lucas, T. C.

2026-06-17 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.15.26355663 medRxiv
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Background. Current exposure-health models rely on averaged, residential-based environmental exposures, failing to account for human movement. This aggregation can lead to exposure misclassification and biased exposure-response estimates, potentially distorting our understanding of the true health effects of environmental conditions. We developed exposure disaggregation regression models that explicitly account for human movement when linking environmental exposures to health outcomes. Methods. By weighting pixel-level exposures according to distance from home as a simple proxy for human movement, our model linked disaggregated environmental exposures to individual-level health outcomes. Weights were either fixed a priori or derived from a latent distance-decay power parameter learned from the data. We additionally evaluated model performance under a nonlinear exposure-response relationship. Model performance was assessed across multiple sample sizes (N = 1,114; 50,000; and 100,000). A simulation study examined parameter recovery using bias, empirical standard error (EmpSE), and credible interval coverage. As a case study, Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data from Albania were used to link acute respiratory infection (ARI) outcomes among children under five to pixel-level NDVI within a 3 km buffer around DHS cluster centroids, and the proposed models were applied to these data. Results. Across all models (fixed-weight, learned-weight, and restricted cubic spline models), parameter recovery improved with increasing sample size. At N = 1,114, estimates were biased and imprecise, with incorrect effect direction for exposure-response parameters (e.g., learned-weight {beta}1 bias = - 0.79; EmpSE = 2.61; coverage = 0.88). In contrast, the models accurately recovered parameters at larger sample sizes, including the latent distance-decay parameter (bias = - 0.02; EmpSE = 0.15; coverage = 0.95 at N = 100,000), demonstrating their ability to reliably learn movement-based exposure weights when sufficient data were available. Conclusion. Instead of relying on arbitrarily-sized buffers, this statistical framework provides a novel method for studying environmental exposure-health relationships whilst accounting for human movement. With sufficiently large sample sizes, it can accurately estimate the influence of disaggregated environmental exposures on individual-level health and help address exposure misclassification arising from residential-only metrics. This methodological framework remains scalable, interpretable, and adaptable to other exposures and outcomes, offering a foundation for future work that integrates richer mobility-informed exposure-health research.

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Trends, Rural-Urban Inequalities and Forecasts of Open Defecation in Ghana Using Joinpoint Regression and ARIMA Analysis, 2000-2030

Inusah, A.-W.; Nwuzoh, M. I.; Seidu, A.-A.

2026-06-29 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.24.26356484 medRxiv
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Abstract Background: Open defecation remains a major public health challenge in Ghana and across sub-Saharan Africa, with persistent rural-urban inequalities undermining progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 6.2 (SDG 6.2). Despite two decades of national sanitation programming, structural and equity barriers continue to constrain progress. A repeated cross sectional analyses and longitudinal analysis combining WHO-standardised inequality measures, temporal trend modelling, and projections remain absent from the literature for Ghana. Methods: National, rural, and urban open defecation prevalence (2000-2024) was analysed using WHO Health Equity Assessment Toolkit (HEAT) data. Four inequality measures: Difference, Ratio, Population Attributable Risk (PAR), and Population Attributable Fraction (PAF), quantified rural-urban disparities. Joinpoint regression identified statistically significant trend inflection points across MDG and SDG eras. ARIMA models projected prevalence to 2030 under status quo, accelerated, and decelerated scenarios; hold-out validation confirmed high forecast accuracy across all series (MAPE <1%). Results: National prevalence declined from 20.31% to 17.79% (AAPC: -0.55%, p<0.001), with a joinpoint at 2016 (95% CI: 2015-2017) after which decline slowed during the SDG era. Rural prevalence rose marginally (AAPC: +0.07%) with no significant joinpoints across the 25-year period; urban prevalence also increased (AAPC: +0.76%). Rural prevalence exceeded urban more than threefold by 2024 (R=3.38); PAF improved from -62.62% to -48.85%, indicating a substantial national burden attributable to rural disadvantage. Under the status quo scenario, national and rural prevalence are projected at 17.24% and 30.88% by 2030, far exceeding the SDG 6.2 threshold. Conclusion: Despite modest national progress, substantial rural-urban inequalities remain entrenched, and Ghana is unlikely to achieve SDG 6.2 under current trajectories. Accelerated, equity-focused interventions targeting structurally disadvantaged rural populations are urgently required to reduce sanitation inequalities and improve health outcomes.

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Prevalence and determinants of respiratory symptoms and functional disorders among children exposed to particulate matter through domestic and maternal occupational solid fuel use in Abidjan, Cote dIvoire - a cross-sectional study

Pajot, A.; Dje, S. A.; Tanoh, F. D. A.; Liousse, C.; Thivillon, T.; Doumbia, M.; Gnamien, S.; Marie, Y.; Fayon, M.; Yoboue, V.; Marcy, O.

2026-07-04 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.07.01.26357005 medRxiv
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ABTRACT Background Children from low- and middle-income countries are particularly vulnerable to air pollution, a major environmental health risk, due to the immaturity of their lungs and their proximity to sources of household pollution. This study aimed to investigated the effect of exposure to biomass combustion through domestic and maternal occupational activities on respiratory health of children living in disadvantaged urban areas of Abidjan, Cote dIvoire. Methods Between February and December 2023, we conducted a cross-sectional observational study among children <16 years from households of women using biomass fuel for cooking (Group (G) 1), engaged in occupational fish smoking activities (G2), or primarily using gas for domestic cooking (G3). We assessed reported respiratory symptoms through standardized questionnaires and the presence of lung function impairments (LFI) though pulmonary function tests (spirometry and Rint). We assessed the association between study groups and key covariates with respiratory symptoms and LFI using mixed-effects regression models. Results Of 210 children enrolled - 119 (56.8%) female, median age 9 (6-12) years, 82 (39.0%) in G1, 47 (22.4%) in G2, and 81 (38.6%) in G3 - 15 (7.1%) reported wheezing in the last 12 months, 82 (39.0%) reported dry cough at night, 9 (4.9%) presented with dyspnea and 5 (2.7%) had chest pain on clinical examination, for an overall proportion of children with reported respiratory symptoms of 43.8% (92/210). Of 176 children who underwent pulmonary function testing, 59 (33.5%) had LFI detected, including 34 (45.9%) in G1, 8 (22.2%) in G2, and 17 (25.8%) in G3 (p = 0.011). Study group was associated with respiratory symptoms (G1 vs G3; aOR 3.82, 95% CI 1.68-8.68; p < 0.001), as well as with LFI (p = 0.042). Girls were at greater risk of LFI than boys (aOR 2.69, 95% CI 1.24-5.80; p = 0.012). Children whose mothers used charcoal or wood as cooking fuel had higher odds of respiratory symptoms (OR 2.61, 95% CI 1.22-5.58; p = 0.013) but no association was found with LFI (p = 0.459) compared with unexposed children. Conclusion Respiratory symptoms and lung function impairments were highly prevalent among children living disadvantaged, especially when mothers cook with wood or charcoal. Targeted maternal awareness and broader interventions to reduce household air pollution in disadvantaged urban areas are urgently needed to protect long-term respiratory health.

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Microbiological Quality of Weaning Foods and Hygiene-Related Risk Factors in Peri-Urban, Lusaka Zambia

Chipungu, J.; Ngosa, D.; Bick, S.; Davies, K.; Mwila-Kazimbaya, K.; Sharma, A.; Braun, L.; Chilengi, R.; Knee, J.; Dreibelbis, R.

2026-06-29 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.23.26356408 medRxiv
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Food contamination contributes to 40% of childhood diarrhoea cases globally. It occurs when pathogens are transmitted from faecal matter to food through the faecal oral route. Food hygiene can prevent food contamination and improve the microbial quality of weaning foods in domestic settings. However, context specific evidence is needed to identify risk factors associated with food contamination, especially in complex low-income communities. Our study used a modified Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point approach to assess the quality of weaning foods and identify associated risk factors in a low income setting of Lusaka, Zambia. We enrolled 60 caregivers of children aged <1 year who had begun complementary feeding and collected data on household characteristics and food hygiene behaviours using surveys and structured observations. We collected samples of complimentary foods prepared for the child and tested them for Escherichia coli (E. coli) using the IDEXX Colilert-18 method. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to determine risk factors associated with food contamination. Of 59 food samples, 17 (29%) were contaminated with E. coli. Porridge (AOR = 0.04; 95% CI: 0.01, 0.28; p = 0.001) and non-animal source foods (AOR = 0.11; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.69; p = 0.019) were associated with lower odds of contamination compared with animal source foods. Heating of food was also associated with lower odds of contamination but was not significant. Food hygiene behaviours including utensil and surface cleaning were low (17% and 15%, respectively), and handwashing with soap before food preparation was not practiced. Our study identifies the microbiological risk associated with animal source foods and the potential health risk posed to weaning children. Nutrition guidelines should take into consideration this risk as programs promote an increased uptake of animal source foods in child diets.

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Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances Exposure in New Jersey Prostate Cancer Survivors: A Pilot Biomonitoring Study

Joseph, S. A.; Opara, C.; Shanahan, M. R.; Varga, J.; Falcon, J.; Ibanga, U.; Venkatraman, S.; Perlstein, M.; Jang, T. L.; Golombos, D.; Ghodoussipour, S.; Fan, T.; O'Leary, S.; Graber, J. M.; Hart, J. E.; Barrett, E. S.; Bandera, E. V.; Iyer, H. S.

2026-07-13 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.07.08.26357561 medRxiv
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Background: Men with prostate cancer (PCa) may be especially vulnerable to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) exposure due to their endocrine-disrupting and cardiometabolic impacts and cardiotoxicity and immune suppression of treatments. Objective: A pilot study was launched to measure serum and tap water PFAS concentrations in PCa survivors. Methods: Men with PCa were recruited from Rutgers Cancer Institute between February 2025 and March 2026, with ongoing enrollment and follow-up. Eligible men were aged [&ge;]40 years and either on active surveillance or within 3-12 months of initial definitive treatment. Participants provided blood and residential tap water samples, which were analyzed using mass spectrometry (serum) and modified EPA method 537 (water). Geometric means were used to summarize PFAS concentrations by race and assess serum-tap water correlations. Results: Of 235 eligible patients, 124 (60%) enrolled. Median age was 64 years; 63% were non-Hispanic White, 43% had a Gleason score [&le;]6. Roughly half of participants provided serum and/or tap water samples. In serum, six PFAS analytes had >80% detection; of these analytes, median concentrations ranged from 0.13 ng/mL (IQR: 0.07-0.20) for PFHpS to 2.55 ng/mL (IQR:1.54-3.82) for nPFOS. Among 74 tap water samples, 9 PFAS analytes had >60% detection; of these, median concentrations of PFNA (0.56 ng/L; IQR: 0.33-0.75), PFOA (3.75 ng/L; IQR: 1.21-5.27), and PFOS (2.29 ng/L; IQR: 0.46-2.89), were below New Jersey Maximum Contaminant Levels. Non-White participants had significantly higher levels of multiple PFAS analytes in both serum and tap water. Serum-tap water correlations were modest (r=0.22-0.41). Significance: The pilot study has demonstrated both the feasibility and importance of studying PFAS exposure pathways as well as potential impacts of PFAS exposure in diverse populations. Keywords: Prostatic Neoplasms, Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS), Biomonitoring, Environmental Exposure, Cohort Studies, Pilot study Impact Statement: This study provides some of the first estimates of PFAS exposure among prostate cancer patients in serum and tap water, showing moderate correlations between tap water and serum concentrations of specific PFAS analytes. These findings can support larger studies to identify environmental exposure sources and evaluate the role of PFAS in prostate cancer progression and outcomes.

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Associations of Chemical Exposures with Psychological Distress and Depression Diagnosis among Waste Pickers in Brasilia, Brazil: A Cross-Sectional Study

King Stone, K. L.; Maia Pelagalli, S.; Melanson, A.; Steelman, M.; Cruvinel, V. R. N.; Pintas, C. P.; Macena, N.; Thygerson, S.; Thacker, E. L.

2026-06-22 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.19.26356069 medRxiv
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Introduction: Waste pickers face chemical exposures. We evaluated whether chemical exposure is associated with psychological distress and depression. Methods: A 2017 cross-sectional survey included 1,141 waste pickers working in the Estrutural open dump in Brasilia, Brazil. Participants self-reported occupational exposure to 11 chemical categories, 17 psychological distress symptoms, and depression diagnoses. Associations of chemical exposure with mean psychological distress scores and depression prevalence were assessed, adjusted for age, sex, marital status, and income. Results: Mean psychological distress score was higher among those exposed to any chemical (mean of 8.1 vs 6.1; adjusted mean difference [aMD]: 1.8 [0.9, 2.7]) and higher among those exposed to each of 11 chemical categories, for example, smoke (aMD: 1.2 [0.6, 1.7]), batteries (aMD: 1.5 [1.0, 1.9], and oils (aMD: 1.3 [0.9, 1.8]). Depression was more prevalent among those exposed to oils (16.6% vs 10.6%; adjusted prevalence difference [aPD]: 6.3% [95% CI: 2.3, 10.2]), cleaning products (aPD: 5.4% [1.2, 9.5]), medications (aPD: 4.7% [0.6, 8.8]), and aerosols (aPD: 5.3% [1.3, 9.3]) but, not smoke, batteries, greases, insecticides, solvents, paints, chemical containers, or any chemical. Conclusion: These associations highlight the need to consider policy level protections for waste pickers to reduce chemical exposure and guard against psychological distress. Further research is necessary to explore which specific chemicals, within broad chemical categories, are associated with psychological distress and depression.

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AI-Assisted Longitudinal Analyses of Environmental and Psychosocial Determinants of Subjective Cognitive Difficulties

Ma, S.; Cao, C.

2026-06-22 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.18.26355982 medRxiv
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Short-term environmental exposures have been linked to cognitive and behavioral outcomes, although many reported associations may reflect broader geographic and contextual differences. Using longitudinal data from the All of Us Research Program (2018--2024), we linked daily weather and air-pollution exposures to repeated attention-related and subjective cognitive outcomes. Associations were evaluated using pooled, fixed-effects, lagged, and event-study analyses. Additional machine-learning analyses were conducted to explore potential heterogeneity and latent psychosocial structure. Replication analyses were performed using the 2024 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). Several environmental exposure measures showed small associations with cognitive outcomes in pooled analyses, but most attenuated substantially after accounting for within-location temporal variation. Mediation, sensitivity, and machine-learning analyses yielded similar conclusions. In contrast, mental-health burden, loneliness, and social functioning were consistently associated with subjective cognitive difficulty and exhibited substantially larger effect sizes than environmental exposures. Similar patterns were observed in BRFSS. Exploratory AI-assisted analyses yielded findings broadly consistent with the primary longitudinal analyses. These findings suggest that short-term environmental perturbations may have limited associations with cognitive outcomes after accounting for within-location variation, whereas psychosocial factors appear to be more consistently associated with subjective cognitive burden.

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Early-life Urban Environment, Nutrition, and Pubertal Timing in Southern Europe: An Exposome Analysis

Pinto da Costa, M.; Jover, M. A.; Llorens, A. S.; Portefaix, A.; Ribeiro, A. I.; Santos, S.; Lopez-Espinosa, M.-J.; Iniguez, C.; Subiza-Perez, M.; Arregi, A.; Leis, R.; Bueno, G.; Guxens, M.; Vrijheid, M.; Araujo, J.; Vilela, S.; Anguita-Ruiz, A.

2026-06-18 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355261 medRxiv
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Background: Urban environmental and lifestyle factors during early life may influence pubertal timing, but the combined effects of multiple environmental exposures within an exposome analytical framework remain poorly understood. Objective: To examine the association between early-life urban environmental exposures and pubertal timing, and to explore whether these exposures interact with early-life nutritional factors, namely breastfeeding duration and childhood diet quality. Methods: Data from two European population-based birth cohorts were analysed: Generation XXI (G21, Portugal; n=5263; 51.5% girls) and INfancia y Medio Ambiente (INMA, Spain; n=1019; 50.1% girls). Urban environmental exposures including indicators of air pollution, traffic, built environment, and natural spaces were estimated at 4 early-life stages at both cohorts: pregnancy (INMA only), birth, 1 year, and 4-5 years of age. Pubertal development timing was assessed using Tanner staging and/or the Pubertal Development Scale (PDS), and age at menarche was self-reported. Exposome-Wide Association Study (ExWAS) models and unsupervised clustering followed by ordinal logistic regression models were used to examine single- and multi-exposure associations, respectively. Regression models were fitted adjusting for relevant child characteristics, maternal factors, and household socioeconomic conditions, and corrected for multiple testing. Results: Individuals living in more unfavourable urban environments characterised by higher building density, air pollution, and lower access to natural spaces showed earlier pubertal timing according to multiple outcomes, across multiple early-life exposure periods, and in both cohorts. In the G21 cohort, these environmental profiles were associated with earlier age at menarche, particularly for exposures at 1-1.5 and 4-5 years (e.g., 1-1.5y: {beta}=-0.172, FDR-adjusted p-value=0.041), while in the INMA cohort, boys exposed to more unfavourable environmental profiles showed more advanced pubertal development, also particularly for exposures at 1-1.5 and 4-5 years of age (e.g., 1-1.5y; {beta}=0.572, FDR-adjusted p-value=0.008). Among environmental domains, air pollution and traffic were the factors most consistently associated with pubertal timing. Regarding early-life nutritional factors, longer duration of exclusive breastfeeding was associated with a lower Tanner stage among girls in G21. No significant interactions between breastfeeding duration and environmental exposure clusters were observed. Conclusion: Early-life urban environmental exposures, particularly air pollution and traffic, may influence pubertal timing. Exclusive breastfeeding may have a protective role against earlier pubertal development. These findings highlight the importance of improving urban environmental conditions and promoting breastfeeding to support healthy developmental trajectories.

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Beyond green cover: Greenspace morphology and configuration predict heat-related illness in Arizona

Wang, H.; Li, S.; Gholami, S.; Hoover, J.; Waller, M.; Ernst, K.

2026-07-10 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.07.08.26357485 medRxiv
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Residential greenness has been associated with reduced heat-related illness, yet the specific role of greenspace morphology at the neighborhood scale remains insufficiently understood. This study quantified the relationship between heat-related illness and multiple dimensions of greenspace morphology using an eight year (2016-2023) unbalanced panel dataset comprising 19,021 block group year observations across 2,427 census block groups in Arizona, USA. One meter high resolution National Agricultural Imagery Program aerial imagery was classified to calculate greenspace percentage, number of greenspaces, average size, shape complexity, connectedness, and distantness, at the block group level. We applied conditional spatial autoregressive models with a negative binomial distribution to estimate associations between each morphology metric and yearly heat-related illness counts, adjusting for sociodemographic and geographic covariates. We found higher greenspace percentage, aggregation, shape complexity, connectedness, and density were consistently associated with lower heat-related illness risk. A one standard deviation increases in shape complexity corresponded to a 12.4% decrease in expected heat-related illness counts (IRR=0.876, 95% CI: 0.834-0.921). Similarly, increases in greenspace percentage (14.6% decrease; IRR=0.855, 95% CI: 0.827-0.885), number of greenspace patches (3.7% decrease; IRR=0.963, 95% CI: 0.937-0.990), average size (4.5% decrease; IRR=0.955, 95% CI: 0.923-0.989), and connectedness (5.5% decrease; IRR=0.945, 95% CI: 0.918-0.972) were all protective. In contrast, larger inter greenspace distances were associated with increased heat-related illness risk (6.1% increase; IRR=1.061, 95% CI: 1.033-1.091). Our findings highlight the critical importance of multiple dimensions of greenspace morphology in mitigating heat-related health risks. These results suggest that heat reduction planning with greening initiatives should consider not only the amount of greenspace but also its spatial configuration to maximize cooling and result in health benefits.

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Mixed-Frequency Regression Model for Short-Term Environmental Exposure-Response Modelling: A Simulation Study

Shukla, N.; Tahir, H.; Smart, S.; Bartington, S. E.; Hansell, A. L.; Lucas, T. C.

2026-06-29 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.24.26356336 medRxiv
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Background: Extreme environmental events, such as extreme temperatures and air pollution, have become a global concern due to their detrimental effects on human health. Short-term peak exposure episodes, despite lasting only a few hours, are crucial for exposure-response modelling. The use of time-aggregated exposure data often overlooks the impact of peak exposures on human health. However, studies employing high-temporal resolution exposure data are rare due to the limited availability of high-temporal resolution health outcomes across various scenarios. Therefore, to address the limitations associated with exposure-response modelling using aggregated exposure data, we have developed a model referred to as the mixed-frequency distributed lag non-linear model (mf-DLNM). Methods: In this work, a simulation study was conducted to further validate the mf-DLNM for hourly-daily mixed-frequency data, using data on hourly temperature and daily respiratory mortality for the West Midlands, UK. Given that the focus was on extreme exposures, Relative Risks (RR) at the 5th and 95th temperature quantiles were considered as the estimands of interest. Model performance was evaluated based on the bias, empirical standard error (EmpSE), and coverage of these estimands. Additionally, the model was assessed across various scenarios, considering data size (1, 3, 5, and 11 years with a 24-hour lag), lag length (12 and 24 hours with 11 years), seasonal variation (summer months with 11 years and 24-hour lag) and distribution (Poisson and negative binomial). Results: The mf-DLNM effectively captured the true parameters of the model. The model, fitted to 11 years of simulated data, a 24-hour lag and a Poisson distribution, observed a bias of 0.011 (0.0009) and 0.011 (0.001) for the RR at the 5th and 95th temperature quantiles, respectively, with Monte Carlo SEs (MCSEs) in parentheses. Furthermore, the model exhibited coverage of 0.94 and 0.93 for RR at the 5th and 95th temperature quantiles, respectively. In addition, the mf-DLNM with hourly and daily data demonstrated satisfactory performance across all scenarios except for the RR at 95th temperature quantiles in the seasonal analysis. Conclusions: Researchers are encouraged to adopt mf-DLNM in instances where high-temporal resolution exposure data are available alongside low-resolution health data. It serves as an alternative to traditional approaches that aggregate high-frequency exposure data. By preserving the temporal information of environmental exposures, mf-DLNM enables a more precise assessment of exposure-response relationships, thereby improving the accuracy and reliability of health risk estimates. This approach offers a promising opportunity for informed decision-making and the development of effective interventions for vulnerable populations and healthcare facilities to address short-term environmental episodes.

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Climatic Drivers of Malaria risk in Children Under Five: A Large-Scale Analysis of individual-level data for 350,000 children in 26 Sub-Saharan African Countries

Martellini O Nocentini, M.; Pandey, S.; Olivetti, L.; Defilippo, F.; Wybrant, M.; Worou, K.; Mazzoleni, M.; Quiros-Roldan, E.; Byakika, P.; Torti, C.; Magnusson, C.; Gasparrini, A.; Messori, G.; Raffetti, E.

2026-06-22 occupational and environmental health 10.64898/2026.06.17.26355855 medRxiv
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Background Malaria risk is influenced by climatic conditions, and children under five are particularly vulnerable due to their limited acquired immunity. We investigate the association between climatic factors and malaria risk in 350,000 children aged 5-59 months in sub-Saharan Africa over 18 years. Methods We included children aged 5-59 months with malaria tests from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in 26 sub-Saharan African countries between 2006 and 2023. We linked these data to high-resolution climate exposures: temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, actual evapotranspiration and specific humidity. We fitted a mixed-effect logistic regression model incorporating Distributed Lag Non-linear Models (DLNM) over 1-6 month lag window for each exposure, controlling for seasonality and long-term trends. We examined effect modification by maternal education, household wealth, residential type, water source, sanitation facility, child age and sex, use of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs), and the age of the household head. Results Malaria prevalence was 19.5%. Malaria risk was highest at 24 degrees (OR: 1.45, 95% CI: [1.36, 1.54]), followed by a decline at higher temperatures. This elevated risk was mainly driven by short-term exposures (1-2 months). Precipitation increased risk up to 59 ~ 120 mm (1.10, [1.07, 1.12]), after which heavier rainfall reduced risk, particularly at short- to medium-term lags (1-4 months). Soil moisture was associated with increasing risk up to ~80 mm (1.11, [1.08, 1.14]), with a plateau at higher levels. Evapotranspiration showed a strong, near-linear positive association with malaria risk. Higher specific humidity levels (>14 g/kg) presented a lower risk, reaching a 45% reduction at 17 g/kg (0.55, [0.49, 0.61]), with the strongest protective effects at short-term lags (1-2 months). Elevated malaria risk at low and moderate average temperatures was particularly evident among children who did not sleep under an ITN net. Conclusion Malaria risk in children under five is strongly shaped by climatic factors, with complex and delayed associations. The findings provide evidence to guide targeted interventions and early-warning strategies for vulnerable populations.

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Psychosocial Factors Outweigh Short-Term Environmental Exposures in Subjective Cognitive Difficulties: A Causal AI Study

Cao, C.; Ma, S.

2026-06-25 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.23.26356240 medRxiv
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Short-term environmental exposures have been linked to cognitive and attention-related outcomes, but the robustness of these associations remains uncertain. We linked daily weather and air-pollution exposures to repeated measures of subjective cognitive difficulties and attention-related outcomes among participants in the All of Us Research Program from 2018 to 2024. Associations were evaluated using complementary longitudinal and causal-inference approaches, including fixed-effects, lagged-exposure, and event-study analyses. Machine-learning methods were used to characterize heterogeneity and latent psychosocial structure, and findings were independently evaluated using 2024 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data. Several environmental exposure measures were associated with cognitive outcomes in pooled analyses; however, most associations attenuated substantially after accounting for within-location temporal variation. In contrast, mental-health burden, loneliness, and impaired social functioning remained consistently associated with subjective cognitive difficulty across analytical approaches. Similar patterns were observed in the validation dataset. These findings suggest that some observed environmental associations may reflect broader geographic and contextual differences rather than short-term environmental effects. Overall, psychosocial factors demonstrated more consistent associations with subjective cognitive difficulties than short-term environmental exposures across multiple analytical frameworks and independent datasets.

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Toxigenic and non-toxigenic Vibrio cholerae serogroups co-circulate across multiple drinking water source types during cholera outbreaks in Zamfara State, northwestern Nigeria

Abba, O.; Mohammed, N.; Okoye, R.; Ukwaja, V. C.; Saidu, M.; Salisu, N.; Nyandjou, Y. M. C.; Abubakar, U.

2026-07-13 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.07.09.26357630 medRxiv
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Background Cholera remains a recurrent public health emergency in Zamfara State, northwestern Nigeria, where communities depend predominantly on untreated and poorly protected water sources. Environmental water bodies serve as reservoirs for Vibrio cholerae, sustaining transmission cycles between outbreaks. Despite the severity of recurrent outbreaks in the region, data on the molecular characteristics and serogroup distribution of V. cholerae across different drinking water source types in Zamfara State remain critically limited. Methodology/Principal Findings A cross-sectional environmental surveillance study was conducted between 13 October and 26 November 2025 across five cholera-affected Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Zamfara State: Gusau, Bungudu, Talata Mafara, Zurmi, and Shinkafi. A total of 142 water samples were collected from five source types -- rivers, boreholes, wells, tap water, and sachet water. Presumptive isolation was performed on Thiosulfate-Citrate-Bile Salts-Sucrose (TCBS) agar following alkaline peptone water enrichment. Fifty-five presumptive isolates underwent PCR-based molecular confirmation and serotyping using three gene targets: ompW (species confirmation, 588 bp), ctxA (O1 toxigenicity marker, 302 bp), and tcpA (O139 colonisation factor, 120 bp). Presumptive V. cholerae was recovered from 55 of 142 samples (38.7%; 95% CI: 30.5-47.3%), with well water recording the highest positivity rate (69.7%; 95% CI: 51.3-83.7%). A statistically significant association was observed between water source type and presumptive V. cholerae occurrence ({chi}2 = 23.11, df = 4, p < 0.001). Molecular analysis confirmed 29 isolates (52.7%; 95% CI: 39.2-66.0%) as V. cholerae, comprising 22 O1 serotypes (75.9%), one O139 serotype (3.4%), and six non-O1/non-O139 serotypes (20.7%). Toxigenic O1 strains were detected across all five LGAs and in all five water source types, including commercially packaged sachet water. The O139 serotype was identified in a single well-water isolate from Zurmi LGA, representing the first environmental detection of this serotype in Zamfara State. Conclusions/Significance The co-circulation of toxigenic O1, O139, and non-toxigenic non-O1/non-O139 V. cholerae serogroups across five distinct drinking water source types confirms that community water environments serve as genetically diverse reservoirs sustaining cholera transmission in Zamfara State. These findings underscore the urgent need for integrated water quality surveillance, sanitation infrastructure investment, and sustained molecular monitoring of environmental V. cholerae populations.

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Impact of wildfire-related fine particulate matter on tuberculosis notifications in Brazil: a nationwide panel study, 2003-2023

Pham, T. M.; Mendonca, T.; Zhang, Y.; Mallia, D.; Croda, J.; Cohen, T.; Andrews, J. R.; Requia, W.; Walter, K. S.

2026-07-04 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.07.01.26356762 medRxiv
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Background Wildfire activity and smoke exposure are increasing worldwide because of climate and land-use change. Although fine particulate matter (PM2.5) may impair pulmonary immune defences against tuberculosis (TB), population-level evidence remains limited. We estimated the effect of wildfire-related PM2.5 exposure on TB notification rates in Brazil. Methods We conducted a nationwide panel study linking municipality-level monthly TB notifications from Brazil's SINAN system with wildfire-related PM2.5 estimates from GEOS-Chem simulations across 5,545 municipalities (2003-2023). We estimated the impact of high-exposure days (PM2.5 > 25 g/m3) on monthly TB notifications using Poisson regression with fixed effects for municipalities, state-by-year, and state-by-month, controlling for time-invariant differences, secular trends, and seasonality. Distributed lag effects were estimated over 1-24 months before notification. Models accounted for meteorological conditions, GeneXpert diagnostic coverage, and spatial correlation using Conley standard errors. We computed attributable fractions among exposed municipality-months (AFE). Sensitivity analyses evaluated alternative PM2.5 thresholds (15 and 35 g/m3), co-pollutants, and agricultural expansion. Findings From Jan 1, 2003 to Dec 1, 2023, 1,758,982 TB cases were reported. Of these, 353,319 (20.1%) had at least one high-exposure day (PM2.5 > 25 g/m3) 1-24 months before notification. An additional 14 high-exposure days over the 24-month lag period was associated with an average monthly increase of 2.9% [95% CI: 0.9-4.9%] in TB notification rates. Effects peaked at 13 months (IQR: 11-14) prior to notification. Results showed a dose-response relationship across PM2.5 thresholds and were robust to controlling for NO2, O3, and agricultural expansion. Overall, wildfire-related PM2.5 exposure accounted for 2.1% [0.7-3.5%] of TB notifications in exposed municipality-months, corresponding to 7,802 [2,612-12,544] attributable cases. The AFE reached 10.7% [7.1-14.0%] in Pantanal and 7.3% [6.1-8.5%] in Amazonia, areas most impacted by wildfires. Interpretation Wildfire-related PM2.5 exposure may represent an increasingly important and modifiable risk factor for TB. As wildfire activity increases across many regions of the world, these findings highlight the need for integrating air quality into climate adaptation and TB control strategies.

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Determinants of non-utilization of insecticide-treated nets among children under five in Rwanda: analyses of the 2024 Rwanda malaria indicator survey

Eduah, K. N.; Eduah, A. O.

2026-06-17 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.16.26355760 medRxiv
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Background Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are effective for preventing malaria among children under five years, who bear a disproportionate burden of malaria. This study assessed the prevalence and determinants of ITN non-utilization among children under five in Rwanda using data from the 2024 Rwanda Malaria Indicator Survey (RMIS).Methodology This cross-sectional study utilized nationally representative data from the 2024 RMIS. Analyses were restricted to children under five residing in households that owned at least one ITN. The outcome was non-utilization of ITN, defined as not sleeping under an ITN the night preceding the survey. Survey-weighted descriptive statistics were used to estimate the prevalence of ITN non-utilization. Factors associated with non-utilization were identified using a survey-weighted Poisson regression model. Adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs), 95% confidence intervals and p-values were reported.Results A total of 1,979 children were included in the study. The weighted prevalence of ITN non-utilization among children under five years was 20.11% (95% CI: 17.81 - 22.63). After adjusting for other factors, children aged 2 - 3 years were associated with an 83% higher prevalence of ITN non-utilization compared with those aged [&le;]1 year (aPR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.423 - 2.352, p < 0.001). Compared with households that owned only one ITN, children in households with three or more ITNs were associated with a 76% lower prevalence of ITN non-utilization (aPR = 0.24, 95% CI: 0.171 - 0.332, p < 0.001). Children living in households with 5 - 7 members were associated with an 87% higher prevalence of ITN non-utilization compared with those in households with 1 - 4 members (aPR = 1.87, 95% CI: 1.476 - 2.358, p < 0.001).Conclusion The findings suggest that ITN utilization among children is influenced not only by household access to nets but also by household composition and dynamics that shape the allocation and use of available preventive resources.

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Enteric pathogen infections among infants in rural Bangladesh: prevalence, trial impact, and associations with enteric dysfunction and growth.

Müller-Hauser, A. A.; Lambrecht, N. J.; Sobhan, S.; Waid, J. L.; Huda, T. M. N.; Nurjadi, D.; Wendt, A. S.; Rahman, M.; Gabrysch, S.

2026-06-29 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.24.26356432 medRxiv
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Background: Repeated enteric infections and chronic enteric dysfunction have been associated with undernutrition in children. Interventions that reduce enteric pathogen exposure in young children could thereby improve growth and developmental outcomes. We assessed enteric pathogen prevalence in Bangladeshi infants, the impact of a combined homestead food production and food hygiene intervention on pathogen infections, and associations between pathogen infections, enteric dysfunction markers, and child growth outcomes. Methods: We analyzed panel data from 231 children born between April and December 2018 within the Food and Agricultural Approaches to Reducing Malnutrition (FAARM) cluster-randomized trial in Sylhet, Bangladesh. Stool samples were collected at 0-3, 6-8, and 10-13 months of age and assessed for enteric dysfunction biomarkers (myeloperoxidase, alpha-1 antitrypsin, and neopterin) by ELISA and 14 enteric pathogens by multiplex RT-PCR. Diarrhea prevalence was recorded using 7-day recall. Child length and weight were measured at birth and trial endline. Multilevel regression assessed the intervention effect and quantified associations between pathogen exposure, enteric dysfunction, and growth outcomes. Findings: Enteric pathogen prevalence was high (84%) despite low 7-day diarrhea prevalence (5%), and co-infections were common. There was no intervention effect on the prevalence of enteric pathogens. Shigella spp. and Giardia lamblia were associated with higher myeloperoxidase concentrations, while sapovirus was associated with higher alpha-1 antitrypsin concentrations. Repeated protozoan infections (mainly Giardia lamblia) were associated with lower length-for-age, while repeated viral infections (mainly rotavirus and sapovirus) and Cryptosporidium infections were associated with lower weight-for-height and weight-for-age. There was marginal evidence that bacterial infections were associated with lower length-for-age. Conclusion: The intervention was insufficient to reduce the high burden of enteric pathogens in infants, and subclinical infections were associated with enteric dysfunction and poorer growth outcomes. Comprehensive strategies addressing all key exposure pathways are needed to limit pathogen infections and their consequences for child development.

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Loss of salt iodization harmed child survival and academic achievement in Ethiopia

Alemu, R.; Tafere, K.; Gashu, D.; Joy, E. J. M.; Bailey, E. H.; Lark, R. M.; Broadley, M. R.; Masters, W. A.

2026-07-13 public and global health 10.64898/2026.07.08.26357562 medRxiv
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The introduction of salt iodization is associated with improved health and socioeconomic outcomes, but is not yet universally adopted and not always sustained. Using a quasi-experimental event study with difference-in-differences over space and time, we quantify the impacts of iodine deficiency in utero and infancy on childhood mortality and later academic achievement in Ethiopia, comparing cohorts born just before and after the May 1998 border closure that interrupted access to iodized salt. Rural children with fewer months of early-life exposure to iodized salt scored lower on standardized secondary-school exams, especially in districts with low environmental iodine, with excess deaths emerging in infancy and persisting through early childhood. These findings reveal the long-term benefits of salt iodization for health and education, especially for people with low intake of iodine from environmental sources.

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Antimicrobial-resistant E. coli in human, animal and environmental reservoirs in rural Bangladeshi households with young children

Tazin, S.; Hossain, M. S.; Haque, A.; Rahman, M. H.; Tabassum, T.; Rahman, A.; Anderson, C.; Hanif, S.; Barratt Heitmann, G. R.; Miah, M. R.; Yeamin, A.; Jahan, F.; Shoab, A. K.; Rahman, M.; Mahmud, Z. H.; Benjamin-Chung, J.; Ercumen, A.

2026-06-18 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.16.26355831 medRxiv
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In low-income countries, ESBL-producing Escherichia coli (ESBL-EC) is frequently detected in humans, animals and household environments, indicating widespread exposure to antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Established risk factors such as antibiotic use do not explain the high community carriage of AMR in all settings; identifying the dominant exposure pathways can inform interventions against AMR. We aimed to investigate (i) animal-human-environment sharing of AMR by assessing associations between the abundance of ESBL-EC in the household environment, domestic animal feces and young children's stool and (ii) household factors associated with ESBL-EC abundance in these reservoirs. We enrolled 112 households from the CRADLE trial in rural Bangladesh. We enumerated ESBL-EC in drinking water, food, child hand rinses, outdoor soil, indoor floor swabs, chicken and cow feces, and stool from children aged 6 months. We recorded indicators of sanitation, animal ownership/management, human and animal antibiotic use, and child exposure behaviors using structured questionnaires and spot checks. The highest prevalence of ESBL-EC was in child stool (95.6%) and animal feces (82.3-96.9%), followed by soil (48.2%) and floors (36.6%); < 10% of food, child hands and drinking water harbored ESBL-EC. The abundance of ESBL-EC in child stool was not associated with its abundance in any sampled matrix; the abundance in chicken but not cow feces showed positive correlations with soil, floors, child hands, and drinking water (correlation coefficients: 0.19-0.39, p-values < 0.05). Higher-quality latrines (improved, pour-flush, with slab) were associated with lower ESBL-EC abundance across matrices; unsafe animal management (animals roaming or spending the night inside the home) was associated with higher abundance. Child antibiotic use and exposure behaviors (soil ingestion, time spent on floor) were not associated with ESBL-EC abundance in child stool. We observed high AMR colonization among young children and domestic animals in rural Bangladesh not explained by traditional fecal-oral exposure pathways. Future studies should explore additional pathways and assess whether sanitation and animal management improvements can reduce AMR.